Here’s a quick look at articles from the MoneyBlogNetwork and beyond that caught my eye over the past week…

John at MightyBargainHunter reports on a book that scared the heck out of him. It’s none other than “The Long Emergenc…

I understand where you are coming from, I was anxious, depressed and gung-ho all at the same time. Little steps in preparation are better than nothing.

I have no idea what the carrying capacity for humans is. . . but, I bet 1 billion is easily pushing it. . . and we’re way beyond that now. In a few decades, I shudder to think about life in this crazy world. One thing that I forgot to mention in the previous (in light of your thoughts of preparation):

(lots of good info)-
http://www.backwoodshome.com/

also. . . I have no affiliation with this religious group, but if you have a cannery near you (or can find one from somewhere else), it might provide you with an easy, affordable way to stockpile some basic supplies like water/cereals/etc. -

http://www.justpeace.org/nuggets13.htm#MORMON%20CANNERIES

The only thing that I’m worried about is the real doomsday stuff. . . the thought of those of us who were prepared enough to stockpile defending our homes and families (with deadly force) from roving bands of starving thugs. Imagine all of the innercity street gangs (or just the hungry masses) roaming around, invading homes and killing people for water, or fuel, or food.

It’s corny to compare, but it always leaves me thinking about Madmax. Also, the looting and general disorder that I saw in Iraq (following the invasion) woke me up to the possibilities of what would happen when the system starts to collapse under it’s own inability to do anything (think Katrina, as well).

Icebergs? Insane! Full speed ahead!!! We’re unsinkable, after all. . . (just like Rome, the Ottoman Empire, the Dutch, the British, and all of the other great empires were, right?).

Naturally, given the passage of time without a major recent catastrophe (which seems to negate Malthussian thinking), several have dismissed Malthus as overly pessimistic. I think the massive problems due to an exponential increase in population (amidst modest “gains” in crop yields and oil production/etc. over the recent years) is just setting us up for a massive fall (the bigger they are. . . after all).

Anybody who studies biology knows about an S-curve, population dynamics, and the likely factors that reduce exponential growth into sometimes extreme decreases (limited resources, increased competition, disease, problems eliminating wastes, etc.). It is simply life, and humans are not exempt from nature’s cold, relentless corrections when “fixing” species that populate their environment beyond their means to support such heady numbers.

The following link has some info about population dynamics (with graphs) that you might find interesting. You probably know all of this stuff from earlier exposure (or from the book), but. . . meh. . . http://www.emc.maricopa.edu/faculty/farabee/biobk/BioBookpopecol.html

All these things (and what you mention, along with other worries) = precisely the reason that I don’t want to have children. I’m young, and I know that my lifetime will probably see the emergence of real, deadly, unstoppable pandemics (and. . . all this worry about bird flu/SARS/etc. . . why isn’t anybody that freaked out about things like the super-strains of tuberculosis/pneumonia/etc. that are fully resistant to our strongest antibiotics). And, naturally, you always have diseases like HIV/Aids out there to compromise immune systems (as if the superbugs needed any help). At least that’s avoidable (for now. . . ).

Repeatedly, humans have turned a blind, happily ignorant eye to the perils just around the corner. But, catastophes are just around the corner. Europe lost (at least) 1/3rd of its population to plague. . . . the Irish lost about 1/4 of their people to death, 1/4 of their people to emigration following the potato famine (the population of the country went from 10mil to 5mil). . . and, where we used to have hundreds of strains of rice which provided the majority of the world’s population with their daily carb’s. . . now, we’ve limited the rice group (as with all other agricultural produce) to a few strains that yield high/large amounts faster than those other varieties. . . I think it’s actually 10 strains that acccount for 75% of the world’s rice production. We’ve learned so little from earlier famines and examples of what happens when you lower the diversity of your foodstuffs.

Time and time again, some disesase or catastrophic event underscores man’s stupidity. . . and yet, we learn next to NOTHING from the past, and set ourselves up for even greater failures in the future. Hence the cliche that “history repeates itself”.

As Bobby Dylan says (totally unrelated to this, of course):

“Praise be to Nero’s Neptune / the Titanic sails at dawn. . . .”

1) Yes, there will be changes; as oil grows scarce, our way of life will get affected.

But

2) I don’t think the doomsday scenario is likely. There will be alternative energy sources that get tapped, different ways to travel and manufacture that will come up even in the interim. As gas goes from $2 to $10 and beyond, the economics of coal, natural gas, nuclear and other sources become much more attractive – plus, there’s an automatic self correction in demand.

If the “profligate ugly American customer” syndrome changes, that would be a change for the better.